buying a condo in harlem

I like the FDB strip from 110 to 125 although at this point the best values may be in the 140s. What's your time-frame, and are you working with an agent?

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

KBT,

I just went to an apartment on 123rd street, west side. I thought the apartments were beautiful, brand new building. I am not sure how much they cost but I would look at some of the new developments in that area

Based on my numerous visits, the ebst I have seen in term of build quality / price / location within the fdb vicinity are

1) 2280 fdb (a bit overpriced)
2) 88 morningside (2 br a bit small but very impressive views, would go for a 3br with your deposit)
3) the livmor

The definite best places if you want Manhattan style ameneties not super far away are the FDB from 110th-125th corridor (not east of ADC/7th) and East Harlem below 106th (especially below 101st). Outside of that...well, just look up how many restaraunts deliver to the two places I mentioned on Seamlessweb or Deliver.com versus anywhere else in Harlem, and that is as good a proxy as any.

Paying more than $300K TOTAL for anything in Harlem is overpaying.

High risk, high reward for your down payment. Nothing more nothing less. The longer you stay, the more likely you can make out ok+good on average. Try very hard not to sell during a downturn. The bottom falls out of supposedly gentrifying neighborhoods in downturns because the speculative bids leave.

Livmor and 88 Morningside both have a church factor .. mrvibe, any reports on how that's playing out?

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

NYC Matt,

Are you the same Matt who doesnt tip any of your building people at Christmas

He is. He is also obsessed with telling people not to buy in harlem.

KBT224

I just made an offer on one of the apartment at 2280 FDB because this was the best thing I could find close to Columbia University with my budget. I have done my fair share of condo shopping. The price are not very negotiable but the building is nice. The finishes are amazing and you have protect views facing west . No extra condo fees for gyms and pool room that one never really use. Nice roof terrace. The police stationm is not goign anywhere. Lookign at their listing price, there is currently a 2 bedroom with a balcony in the high 600s. A doorman building in the nicest commercial stretch of Harlem with new W hotel next door close to Columbia and future campus as weel as Morningside Park with 25 years tax abatment ....pretty good investment. By the way I am not an agent , just a boring buyer lol

the issue at 2280 FDB is that the ression never came to FDB...at least according to their price structure.

globetrotter, what's the 'future campus' you're referring to?

if i recall there are only 14 closed units at 2280 so far, out of i think 89 or 90... although the building does look nice, and has a great tax abatement, this isn't the greatest indicator of future stability. Also didn't the developer rent out some of the unsold units?

2280 FDB has some pretty highly priced units? what's the upside? $785psf, $939psf, $980psf, $736??

erical brody
the future campus is the extension of Columbia Unversity 125th to 135th.

nycbrokerdax there are 25 closed units and 19 in contracts 50% of the building

faclogold 1 I agree that the price has not really been affected by the recession. But there are new that many new developments close to Columbia west of 7th avenue btw 110th and 125th that I have significantly lowered their price: Livmor, SoHa 118 ,THe Lore , The Douglass, Delany lofts, The Parc Standard. Location, location.....east harlem and above 125th street is a differnet story. I would be surprised that the prices will go significanlty lower with the current low interest rates. I would be concerned about 88 Mornignside drive because of high maitenance, land lease , condop , low ceilings, basic finishes....but great location.

And, as Ali might have been alluding, the joys of triple-parking and sidewalk gathering before and after Harlem church services and events. No thanks.

I agree that one can see negative thinks about the neighborhood. But for an individual that can't afford new developments below 110th street and does not want to buy a coop for the restrictions, this is one of the best options. one can see the bottle half empty or half full ...

globetrotter, you should get a list from the developer of which units they have in contract and which have closed if you are interested in moving forwards. The city records so far (which granted doesn't include closings from december yet) shows 14 closed market rate units. Perhaps the other closed units are the income restricted units? I am not sure that the banks consider the income restricted units in their calculations when deciding to provide a loan. Our system shows only 8 in contract which have not closed, but I do not know how often the developers reps update. I do like the layouts and finishes there, just am concerned about future resale if the other units do not sell and are rented. No major banks will loan for the forseeable future if the developer owns lets say 30 to 40 percent of a building.... even more than 10 percent is not considered great.

Condos in Harlem really can't be priced about $700 psf to sell effectively. If they are, they usually sit. Once they hit the $600 psf area, they begin to move.

What? People buy and sell doorman condos in harlem all the time for $600 PSF? But...Matt says they are worth only $300. And his word is Gospel.

Check out Striver's Lofts on W 135th Street, it's high end new development with large layouts. Prices are negotiable.

Yes, it is not in the hot strip on FDB under W 125th but if you are looking for a smaller boutique condo building (5 units) and don't need the doorman, this is worth a look.

Below are weblinks to the penthouse and 4th floor unit.

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/nyc/sales/0135366#floorplans

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/nyc/sales/0135365#floorplans

Chris Au

That ten blocks will feel like 87. If you don't do FDB, do somewhere, anywhere else below 125th before you do anything, anywhere above it. Unless you go way up to Washington Heights.

I say this in case you want to ever get a taxi, eat at a descent restaurant, get delivery from said restaurant...services get worse and worse the farther from the harlem border versus the UES/UWS....

What is the Harlem border you speak of? Isn't the area above 125 still Harlem???

Yes it is. Some nice properties in the Striver's Row area around St. Nicholas Park and Edgecome just down the hill from City College.

anyone know anything about BRownstone Lane???

The big brownstone units are very nice, but very expensive.

expensive and overpriced or are they all that?

Overpriced for Harlem, yes.

I can see that a lot of people have issues with Harlem. I want to find out if anybody has suggestions in terms of buying a one bedroom or studio in a new condo development below 750 sqft in Manhattan. Nothing against Brooklyn. It is just too far from my job. Harlme FDB strech btw 110th and 125th is so far the best compromise to me,

I said do NOT live above 125th if you can avoid it. The border is 110th west of the 5th and 96th east. The farther you are from either the worse the services. FDB is the most gentrified, followed by East harlem below 106th on 1st, 5th, Lex but not 3rd to 2nd. (projects.)

what do you think about striver's loft that was mentioned above? is that near a police station? parking? good or bad? nothing has sold in the building?

OK, I drove around all the neighborhoods to get a feel for them. Here's the deal: you do not feel like you're in Manhattan above 125 and East of Broadway. I saw few taxi's, few supermarkets...just few of everything except housing. 110 to 125 east of Morningside Park is good (and west of FDB) - just like ali says. Morningside Heights is better but much more expensive. You could look at Hamilton Heights West of Broadway. I don't know much about it but I thought that Columbia's new campus was going up on broadway, west to riverside to about 140. Anyone want to lend more info?

.grunty,
a drive around Harlem in the freezing cold does not tell the tale of Harlem.
It's a tour of the architecture.
Drive around Harlem on a hot July summer night. Better yet, walk. Take in the sights and sounds, chat it up with the locals, ask questions about schools, shopping, churches and, public safety. This is a more practical approach to Harlem. Carry a charged cell phone with a GPS and 911 on speed dial. Alert a loved one of you intentions and the approximate time of your return. Should you not return have them alert the authorities as to your intended itinerary. Make sure all your personal and legal matters wrt your estate are squared away before the adventure. Enjoy beautiful up and coming Harlem, the gateway to the UES and the UWS.

"I agree that one can see negative thinks about the neighborhood. But for an individual that can't afford new developments below 110th street and does not want to buy a coop for the restrictions, this is one of the best options. one can see the bottle half empty or half full"

But for about the same money you can buy a tax abated new condo in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. The FDB corridor of Central Harlem is a decent bet, and if you have to be near Columbia University, that's the best choice. But if you can stand to invest in Kings County, this area is nice, getting nicer, and its a short subway ride to the east and west village--not bad.

I just got done looking at all the condos in the area. I liked 88 morningside a lot, but ended up preferring the Apex-- it seemed to be the best overall deal when all was said and done. I thought 2280 FDB and the livmor were too overpriced.

Price has to do with costs overall. I have seen you post that they are supposedly lowering common charges to $1.05 psf, which is actually still rather high. I own at the Livmor and even if you back out the square footage of the common area tacked onto my supposed square footage I am paying about $0.76 psf, based on my total sf I am paying $0.63 psf.

You also are not factoring in what happens when the building is up and running and you realize that you need to add more things to your budget, you have 40 apartments to share the costs, so that any decision you make could really increase your monthly costs.

I also do not see how on a psf basis the costs of the Apex is so much cheaper. Obviously i can not see what apartments are in contract for, but they all are ranging it seems from mid 500 psf to into the 600s psf, which is pretty much the same as what Livmor and some others have been getting.

However as I said, the costs you are going to pay in common charges are already 30% higher than what i am paying.

While I am not stating I have the better deal, you need to look at all costs. Looking at 12C, it is close enough to what i own, currently it is showing cc of $2436 per month or $1.42 psf, and it is asking $600 psf, a little bit lower than what I paid. But the common charges alone are $1300 per month more, which means at the current rate within 4 years that is the difference between my purchase price and the current ask. Even if it came down to $1.05 as you stated that would still be $1801 in charges and about $650 more per month than what I am paying.

I have not looked at the building but other than the fitness center which I am sure is nicer than what I have, what are the main differences?

The Apex would be perfect if only for the outrageous and unhealthy common charges. Even with the reduction it is out of whack and buyers should be very wary. Too bad.

Unit 9E listed for 980K, and was 1336 square feet. So it's list price was only $509/sq ft. There's definitely stuff there you can have under $500. Even for the 3BRs, the list price if you go to the sales office is less than it shows in StreetEasy. I don't remember the exact prices, but they're all under $1M.

I've reviewed the budget in great detail, as has my lawyer (who has been quoted in the NYTimes real estate section several times). If they really do file the revised offering plan with the changes they've claimed they're making, everything is healthy, not at all outrageous (uptowndude). In addition to the 10% reserve, there are line items that are much higher than the expected expense, meaning that they should build up reserves faster than similar buildings. It's thorough, so it's reasonable to expect that the CCs will not go up, unless the condo owners really do want to go back to the plan of 24/7 staffing (which is unlikely). And, for building expenses, the hotel has a 49% share of the responsibility.

$1.05/sq foot is fine for an elevator+doorman building with only 44 units. And, the seller is offering to subsidize that by 25% for 5 years. So you're talking about $.76/sq foot for the next 5 years, so not much more than what you're paying, mikev.

The fitness center does have high-end hotel-grade equipment, with TVs in each device and ipod/iphone plugs. Then there's the doorman and super.

But the major difference between the buildings is heating and A/C. At Apex, they're included in the common charges, because the building has true central air. In most of the surrounding buildings (including 2280), they have PTAC systems, which not only make it harder to place furniture, but are never rolled into common charges from what I can tell.

Once you realize the heating and A/C bill is rolled into that charge, if you correct for that, Apex will only be a little higher. That's because salaries for the doorman and super are spread around half as many units. But it's not that much of a difference.

Let's say that your building is paying $100K a year in staffing costs. And let's assume the costs are shared evenly per apartment, instead of by square footage. For a building with 88 units, that would be about $1136 PER YEAR, or $95 per month. Going down to 44 units would double that, obviously. But it's still only an extra $1K or so per year (obviously, the studios and 1BRs are going to be in for less). And, any improvements to the actual building get handled as if there are 88 units, because the hotel is in for almost half.

So when you get down and do an apples to apples comparison, you pay maybe $100 more a month, but you save maybe $75-100 per square foot off the top. For 9E, it would take way over 30 years for that $100 a month in extra common charges to cost you enough to offset the price savings off the top. And, with the subsidy, that covers even more time.

I have to admit that I'm disappointed that Apex is not doing a good job talking about what their common charges include. Maybe when their new offering is approved and they can update the listings, they'll learn something from early feedback. But anyone who thinks it's a bad deal is just making assumptions, and hasn't actually taken a look.

Erm, 9E listed for $680 not 980. Sorry for the typo.

Stop wasting your money in Harlem people. Nothing is worth more than $300/foot over there... NOTHING!

WE moved to Harlem about a year ago on FDB between 135th and 145th.
It's generally a quiet neighborhood, people are friendly and we haven't had any problems with crime. There's a police precinct on 135th btw FDB and ACP.

pros:
price
subway access near, 2/3 and b/c/a/d. The A/D from 125th are incredible since you can get to the village in 30mins.
we can walk to/from Yankee stadium
Easy highway access if you're leaving the city.

cons:
garbage on the sidewalk from overflowing trashcans
lack of food delivery and affordable restaurants that are non-soul food.
The confusion between calling my street FDB and 8th Ave.
people in my building keep to themselves and some of them are struggling financially.
Nearby schools are not very good. But not all bad.
There are sketchy areas that I would avoid late at night if all alone - same as anywhere else in the city.
possibly doctor/dental services are not that great- but I'm not sure on that yet.

I wouldn't hesitate at all to encourage people to move here. The sole exception would be if you feel uncomfortable being the minority of the population.

Your analysis is still off. I did not realize you no longer have a 24/7 doorman, which the Livmor does have. You are correct that I pay for my electric for my PTAC systems, but the heat coming through is in the CC, so it is a little electric to fan it through during winter. My electric bills have been under $100 for the past few months, so in fact we are still far off.

As an accountant I do not buy for a second that they are overbudgeting. It is in the sponsors interest to be as close as possible because at this point they are paying for everything. Do you really believe that they intend to build up the reserve funds for the building?

And while they may pay 25% for 5 years, there is no guarantee once you find out that they underbudgeted what your new cc will be. Your out is if they don't charge $1.05 psf in the first year. After the year you have no idea what it will become and even with a 25% discount you still do not know.

As to comparisons you have to compare apples to apples. I compared a 3br to my 3br. They are asking a little over $600 psf, I paid i think around $630. even if they came down $20 psf, you are talking about a $50psf difference. While it is a nice difference over time if you plan on living there, the savings will evaporate quickly.

Also I prefer the 24/7 security of a doorman. While I think the neighborhood is relatively safe, I like knowing that someone knows who is coming into the building and no one could just follow in.

Also i do not follow something, does the hotel not have someone on staff either? I was under the impression that the condo had its own separate entrance with their own doorman?

Clearly a free market says otherwise. People are paying, on average, well over $500/sq ft, so that's what it's all worth today. You may believe that's going to change in the future, and thus we're all making bad investments. And obviously we don't agree with you, otherwise we wouldn't be making those investments. But neither of us know what the future will hold, so time will prove who is right and who is wrong.

Personally, I don't even look at it as an investment. I'm not out to speculate -- my goal isn't to flip the place in a few years to make some money. I want a particular amount of space, and particular amenities (in the building, where I do care about modern heating and air, as well as good light/windows, porter and elevator -- so I'm really mostly interested in new construction, or recent construction). I only have a certain amount to spend (say, $600 per square foot for the amount of space I'm looking for). I want to be no more than 15 minutes from times square (convenient to work).

Given all those requirements, where should I be looking, sledgehammer?? In Manhattan, the only reasonable place right now is Harlem. And I've got enough experience with gentrification and living in gentrifying neighborhoods to personally be confident that it's like a ratchet-- progress can halt for a while, but it's not likely to go backwards, even when the economy slumps. The last couple of years bore that out.

So, my personal belief is that, in the worst case, prices will rise and fall relative to the rest of Manhattan. In the best case, as the entire island continues to gentrify and go more upscale, other people who are priced out of the rest of the city will drive the price per square foot up to be more in line with where it is in similar neighborhoods, like the lower east side, which is currently at $660 a square foot on average, and also going up. Oh, and the FDB corridor is far more accessible to midtown than the LES...

Again, only time will tell. I recognize anything can happen, but I don't feel like it's any mistake at all to pay $500-$600 per square foot in Harlem right now. Plenty of people obviously feel the same way. But even if the Harlem market goes pear shaped and the price came down $200 per square foot (which is highly unlikely), I'd still be doing better economically than continuing to rent, as long as I stay for a decade, which I have every intention of doing.

Mike: there's a big line item for maintenance that is much bigger than in other budgets I looked at in similar buildings. That's in addition to the 10% reserve that's required. So yes I do believe it. I suspect that the hotel required a particular budget for building maintenance as part of their deal with the offeror.

As for the doorman, they now are covering the off hours with a "virtual doorman", so they still have 24/7 coverage. But they're using a video monitoring service that outsources to India or someplace like that. So there's a human on the other end making decisions.

There is a separate hotel entrance, yes. So I'm talking about the doorman for the condo entrance. There's a door with an RFID tag separating the hotel lobby from the residential lobby, so you can't really use it as a guest entrance, but it could be a place for guests to wait while you come down to get them.

I'm looking at 2BRs. It definitely looks to be $75 per square foot cheaper at the Apex in that range. Even if it's only $50 per square foot for the 3BRs (which I'd then expect to come down), it is more than a reasonable discount for the extra building expense.

Despite a part time doorman and a gym that's shared with the adjoining hotel, common charges are astronomical. They're just not close to being comparable to other developments in Harlem. I wish it wasn't so, because I would have really considered purchasing there. Never with common charges beginning that high. They will only increase from here on in. Beware.

Mike: let me rephrase, I don't think I was as clear as I should have been. There's no reason why the true expenses for the two buildings wouldn't be somewhat close. There's no land lease for either, the way there is for 88 morningside. You'd expect to pay a little more on things like doorman salary at Apex, because that's an expense split by about half as many people. But that would probably factor into $100-$200 per month per unit on average.

If the two buildings otherwise offer the same level of service and are keeping the same reserves (and controlling for things like the heating expense), then the common charges should be about that much higher at the Apex, even when the dust settles. Unless you're accusing the Apex of having hidden expenses, and I'd love to know what you'd think those would be?

Even if I end up paying a net of $200 extra a month when controlling for all variables (which I don't expect to happen), I will have saved at least $75K off the top, honestly. Maybe even $100K. That's totally worth it-- at $200 a month, it will be over 31 years before I spend that much in additional common charges.

uptowndude: That's not at all true, as I've just explained in great detail. I have looked at the finances. There is no expense they expect to have that you wouldn't have in any other nearby building. Therefore, the expected difference in the common charges boils down to the following:

1) Having half the number of units, which is good for about a $200 a month difference.
2) Having all the heating rolled into the common charges.
3) The extra budget for maintenance, which will either bolster the reserves, or protect against forgotten/unbudgeted items raising the common fees.

Also, the equipment at the gym is actually higher end, and that's a common cost shared by the hotel, so it's half the burden it would be if it were just the residential units.

If you are trying to say the common charges in the Apex are a bad deal, then you need to tell me what I'm spending that I wouldn't be spending somewhere else. Or, you need to argue that the additional expense for only splitting some things among 44 units is not offset justifiably by the obviously lower up-front price.

MidTownWGeek said: I only have a certain amount to spend (say, $600 per square foot for the amount of space I'm looking for)....But even if the Harlem market goes pear shaped and the price came down $200 per square foot (which is highly unlikely), I'd still be doing better economically than continuing to rent, as long as I stay for a decade, which I have every intention of doing.

You're wrong! I'm amazed how people who can afford a $650K apt can be so financially retarded!
Do you realize that your $650K+ condo will end up costing you close to a million bucks with all interests paid right? And you off course realize that what you're paying first are the interests, right? Go ahead, put your 20% down and buy it. Just remember one thing: Price drop 10 or 12%? Oops! Your 20% downpayment ($130K!!!) is gone in smoke! Price drop 20%? You're underwater baby! You're still paying a million bucks for an apt that is worth only half. And we're assuming a price drop of 20%. So a drop from $600/ foot to $480/foot, a scenario that is most certainly gonna happen! But, hey! At least you can paint your walls the color you want!

If i was a bank i'd ask for a 30% downpayment for any condo in Harlem above $450/square foot! Enough with these people who overpay for housing and make the taxpayer pay for it! It's time for people to take responsibility for their mistakes!

sledgehammer: I'm not wrong. Believe it or not, I can read a truth in lending statement. And finance is a big part of my job. You may think I'm retarded, but you're the one making unfounded assumptions (and you know what happens when you assume... ;-)

I'm putting down a whole lot more than 20%, chief. I'm financing a pretty small amount at a very low rate over a very short time frame. My $650K condo will cost me no more than $850K, if I make no early payments, which is unlikely. It will probably cost me $700 total. But let's go with $850K.

Let's just say that the value of the condo drops 40% by the time I go to sell it, which puts it near $300 per square foot, where you think it will be valued. So I'm all the sudden paying $460K. Let's say I stay in my doorman/elevator building in midtown, where I'd continue to rent at about $4500 a month for something comparable (though less nice, all things considered, actually). Add in my common charges (put them at $1500, which is far more than I'll actually be paying). At that rate, buying is a better deal in less than 13 years, even with your massive price drop. And that's WITHOUT factoring in the income tax deduction, and so on.

That's my worst case scenario. At your 20% scenario, I come out ahead in 9 years. If the price stays flat, it takes 5.5 years. In reality, there's a good chance it will appreciate, and the economics look even better. But even so, I won't sell in 5.5 years... we own a couple other places, and we're just renting them out. If we decide in that time frame that we don't want to be living in the Apex (unlikely), we will just do the same thing.

So, in rea

Sorry for the truncated finish. sledgehammer, you seem like a smart enough guy, so I'd challenge you to stop making stupid assumptions. You assume I can't afford my place, you're wrong. You assume people are buying stuff they can't afford in Harlem, you're mostly wrong. The foreclosure rates in Harlem have been very low compared to most cities that have had issues, like Vegas and Miami. They're very low compared to the outer boroughs, in places like Flatbush. Why? It's because, even when people get in trouble on their mortgages, the gentrification has kept the market in good enough shape that most people can just sell and recover without too much pain.

I do not know what is hidden in the costs, but no sponsor is going to way overbudget a line item. All I am saying is if you believe lets say $100 per month is extra, you then are telling me that for as long as the building is operational that the sponsor is going to just give you $1200 per year, per apartment, as a gift into your pocket? With regard to higher end gym equipment, that is an upfront cost that has already been paid by the sponsor. So there should be no higher fees for your fitness center then mine.

Now you are saying only heating is included into the common charges, same goes for me. Heat is piped into the PTAC units and then controlled by the residents, so it is just the electric charge we pay.

And I really do not understand, if you do not have a 24/7 doorman even with half the number of units you should come more into line with a 70 unit condo building with a 24/7 doorman. I will agree that if you are covering 100% of the super that your costs will be higher there.

Either way I do not understand how they are able to shave almost 30% off there original budget and still have a large cushion.

And remember the psf difference will always stay in line. So even if i spend $50,000 more now and sell down the line, assuming all variables stay the same, I will get more psf when i sell then you do, so ths money makes no difference.

However after 5 years you automatically go up to $1.05 which is $.30 more then me. Assume that nothign else changes you will always be spending that additional money, which on a similar size unit to mine is over $500 per month. so ignoring the first 5 years, for the next 8-9 years after that the $50,000 you saved will be gone and from that point on you will be spending a lot more than I am in common charges.

There is a reason that APEX is not selling quickly and it really has to do with the common charges.

But hey send me a copy of the budget they came up with in the offering plan and I could probably tell you how in line they are. But please do not listen to your attorney with regard to a fair budget. Unless your attorney is also a real estate accountant, he has zero idea.

I don't understand why if you have over $200K set aside, you decide to invest it in a declining market. If you're in finance you must know how to generate enough annual return from this $200K investment to pay for most of the money you'll spend in a rental. Why not waiting a couple of years or so and make a move when housing is cheaper? I don't get it...

Mikev:

1) I was just saying the gym is nicer. The ongoing costs should be no different than yours at all, because they are split with the hotel (though it could end up a little higher when equipment needs to be replaced).
2) Heating and cooling is covered at Apex. I was just accepting that your heat is included.
3) What they shaved out of the budget is entirely headcount. For instance, they originally had a valet for the parking.
4) And, who cares if the reserve ends up higher or not? If it is, and the CCs will rise more slowly.

What I'm trying to say is that the finances in the building will be in line with yours, with the exception of the other labor costs. I actually would be happy to share when they get the new offering approved. Because until then, I am really just speculating based on what they claim they will be changing. Or, if you do want to see the existing offering, I don't mind sending you that either... just PM me. I'm sure if there's something unreasonable in there, you'd spot it.

I agree with you that the CCs are the reason for slower sales (though they're still moving units). But, I looked at multiple units, and there's nothing unexpected that I'm seeing. I think their big problem is clarity-- they're still advertising the old charges, not noting that it includes heating and cooling, etc.

sledgehammer: I do not share your bleak outlook on the housing market. I do not believe it will be cheaper in a couple of years. That's why.

I realize that I may end up wrong. But I am more than educated in my decisions, nonetheless.

Sledge: You are making assumptions regarding the market. What is cheaper, is it going down 20%, then maybe, 3-5%, not to much of a big deal. You need to factor in why someone wants to own. I am a firm believer in holding, so i bought with the intention of barring a major financial issue, of not selling. I also want my home to be mine, which in a rental, no matter what you do, there are just certain things that are ot able to be changed to make you feel that the place is truly yours. So I would rather spend what you say is some extra money now, for making a place mine.

Midtownwgeek: I understand what you are saying, and I guess you are probably closer to correct if they killed off head count that they will be able to get the CC down, but as I said I want that doorman, some guy in india is the same as me staring out a videophone and deciding if i want to let someone in. Actually me making a decision is probably better than the indian guy.

Why, then, Geek, has there been such hesitation on buying at the Apex? Because of the ridiculously high common charges. 5th on the Park, the Kalahari, Livmor, Soha 118 all have considerably lower common charges, and all have equally good amenities as Apex. Yes, they've made the purchasing price lower because they know their common charges are abnormally high in hopes someone will bite.

"Stop wasting your money in Harlem people. Nothing is worth more than $300/foot over there... NOTHING!"

The market says otherwise. People are currently buying and selling new condos there for double that. If you do not think its worth it, don't buy it.

Sledge -- Being a racist is no way to analyze real estate (with apologies to Animal House).

"Being a racist is no way to analyze real estate (with apologies to Animal House)."
Funny! I've never heard that one before. If you refuse to overpay in Harlem, you're a racist now? Hilarious!

What's next? If you favor food shopping in Tradorjoe vs supporting your local bodega, does that make you a racist too?
What about if you favor the subway over cabbies? You're a racist too?
The only kind i hate are assholes, Midtowneast. And you seem like one of them for trying to stick me with such a label.

Mikev: I actually need to figure out how the doorman works off hours. I can't remember if the Apex is the place where the explanation was outsourcing or if it was video panel in the house, but I just looked at my picture of the intercom box, and there's a video screen on it. So perhaps off-hours it isn't outsourced, it's just passed up to the apartment. I'll check, even though I realize it doesn't matter to you :)

uptowndude: The common charges have absolutely been the problem, no question. But that hasn't stopped people from buying. When I went in this weekend, they had 4 signed contracts, 3 where the contracts are still out, but the offer has been accepted, and a handful of offers they're negotiating. Why has it had all this activity recently (at least one of those 4 contracts came after mine, so I think most if not all of the activity is just a couple weeks old)?

Because they are addressing the common charge problem, by cutting out things like the parking valet. They were going for premium amenities, and they're scaling back to have more average amenities. As a result, the common charges will mostly fall in line with everyone else, though they should be a little bit higher due to fewer units, and the HVAC being rolled into the charge. But they won't be higher for the 5 years of the subsidy...

The remaining hurdle is the sponsor getting the new offering plan approved, so they can actually change the advertised common charge. Right now, it obviously scares a lot of people off. It almost scared me off, until I spent a lot of time talking to them (thanks mainly to me not liking the broker at 88 morningside).

I have every expectation that the common charges will fall in line. AND, if they don't, my contract is written to give me an out. They either live up to their word, or I will pull out before closing and get my deposit back.

sledgehammer, while I agree with you that you've not explicitly said anything that indicates you're a racist, I think I can explain to you why people suspect you of it. They see you claiming that the Harlem ppsf is $200 too high for the market, without providing any basis whatsoever for this. Today, the price is about $150/sf lower than the LES. Why should it be $350 less? If Harlem is that far down on the curve, what's in the middle?

When you don't have any reasoning to support your assertions, people are prone to jump to conclusions, right or wrong.

I think the internet isn't too good a communication medium, especially when it comes to conveying emotion. Therefore, I personally am happy to extend you the benefit of the doubt, in absence of something explicitly racist. Nonetheless, I'm still very interested to hear if you have any data or other information to support your assertions about either the value of real estate in harlem, or the trends on those values.

MidTownWGeek -- I know we partially share a handle, but the resemblance ends there. You far more eloquently and cogently said what I had spouted off too bluntly (using a sledgehammer against a Sledgehammer, I suppose). Thanks for that.

Sledge -- Methinks the Hammer doth protest too much.

Not to joke but, this is at the core of the Harlem conundrum.
Is it safe?
We ask this because the area, over the course of time, has earned the reputation of being less safe (true or not). So we can refine the question.
Do you feel safe? better yet...If you move there do you think you will feel safe?
I have examined that very question.
My emotional answer is no. It's less racial and more socioeconomic. Do you think living near a housing project is safe or not? Do I like walking on a block where there are gangs. I have seen this on 116th and have read reports of 'slashing' initiations. Am I exaggerating the danger? Am I taking a specific and making it into a general thereby committing a logical error?
You bet I am because it's an emotional decision.
This is the baggage that comes with your Harlem purchase.
If your a believer and your going to roll the dice the perceived risk has got to be incorporated into cost of your purchase because in the short term it's going to be a constant.

Falco -- Fair enough and very honest. But it really depends on where you are in Harlem, of course. East ain't the same as West. Sledge, however, just has a kneejerk "no" reaction to any Harlem property. That one is harder to explain, except for some obvious explanations.

falcogold1, you are my grandmother talking about the Upper West Side. You want us to move to Long Island. You think we are a bad mother.

And you don't mean "bad mother--shut yo mouth!" ... just plain old bad mother.

Check central Harlem on the NYC homicide map:
http://projects.nytimes.com/crime/homicides/map
It's a war zone over there. People are being gunned down every month.

sledgehammer, correct ... IF you're a black or hispanic victim.

MidtownerEast: thank you!

Falco: spend some time on http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/

The national violent crime rate is 429.4 per 100,000 people. The national property crime rate is 3,036.1 per 100,000 people. NYC as a whole is 551.8 violent crimes and only 1,690.3 property crimes. Unless you're involved with gangs (which is responsible for a big chunk of the violent crimes), NYC is far safer than average America.

To see how Harlem ranks to the rest of NYC, you need to look it up by precinct at http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/crime_prevention/crime_statistics.shtml

The area we're talking about is the 28th Precinct. In 2010, there were 460 violent crimes. Unfortunately, I can't determine how many people live in the 28th precinct. If I were to guess that it covers about 1/4 of the population of Harlem (which is about 215,000 people total), That'd be about 1.85x the violent crime over the average american crime rate. That's still pretty close to the center of the bell curve, a pretty average rate. And again, most of those crimes are going to happen in the projects and among gangs, not to normal citizens. I can tell you that I've felt very safe living in less nice gentrifying neighborhoods with higher crime rates (for example, the South End in Boston).

click on race/ethnicity thing

The NYT link is interesting. There were no homicides in the FDB corridor in 2009 (between morningside park and ACP from the park to 125th) , and really only two or three a year in that zone from 2003-2008.

The map also shows that LIC is very safe when it comes to murders. Maybe because the pollution kills off everyone before they can be murdered.

So much for the key selling point of LIC condos: that the abundant pollution there is a great preservative.

Let me remind all of you that I am speaking of PRECIEVED danger, not actual danger.
Geek, you pasted: 'In 2010, there were 460 violent crimes'.
Not so bad unless you happen to be one of the 460.

How does the perception of danger effect the value of residential RE?

Anecdotally, In the 80's I knew quite a few Israelis that ventured into Harlem and bought up RE. I was amazed at their stupidity. Didn't they know where they were buying? As it turns out because they were not raised in the US they had a much different perception of Harlem. They would say to me, LOOK AT A MAP! It doesn't get better than Harlem for the price. Their perception of Harlem was not colored by the experiences of "my" youth. They were all recent veterans of the 81-82 Lebanon War and they were simply unafraid. Needless to say...they cashed in BIG. The question now is how do you price this factor in? IMHO the prices in Harlem reflect the perception that the danger thing is long gone and no longer a factor in the analysis.
I do not agree.

falcogold1, perceived danger, you and my grandmother both.

And of course those Israelis weren't scared. Click on the ethnicity button. Blacks, very dangerous, Hispanics, very dangerous. Whites, Asians, not so much. Jews: zero crime victims shown.

By the way alan, in the 70's the UWS was a SUPER danger zone. Not precieved...real in your face danger. Moving to Long Island wasn't just a good idea...they fled like rats fleeing a sinking ship. To this day I am astonished at how very dangerous it was.

Honestly fear is what you make of it. There were many people who were told never to live above 96th on Columbus because of the projects, now they have built a mega complex with ridiculous rents and the buildings are all leasing up.

You really need to look at the area you are talking about in Harlem before generalizing. The section i just spoke about is still considered UWS, but you would have lived in other areas of the UWS and not thought twice about it. The same goes for Harlem. I would agree that if i was on 115th by 5th or wherever the projects are, I would not have even considered buying for the perceived danger. However 115th and FDB is another story. While I would agree that getting out on the uptown train at 116th is a bit sketchy since there is no longer a station agent, I am not concerned because of the amount of people who get off the train at the same time. I also do not feel scared to walk around at night if i need to run out to get something.

So I just put forth that it all depends on the area you are talking about and generalizing Harlem as one zone does not work, just as it does not work in other areas of the city

To recap: move to Israel, then to Harlem in order to buy a place. No problem.

i bought in harlem - highly recommend especially central harlem around FDB - btw just named the best nabe in the city on curbed.com.

plus you get way more for your money there and in 5 yrs will be sitting pretty on prime real estate - btw i moved from uws to harlem - don't really notice a huge difference except retail - but a lot of high end restaurants/bars opening

Perception is the reason that the 88 morningside agent tries to tell people they are in Morningside Heights when they are clearly in Central Harlem. It's why some people are trying to call out FDB as a separate neighborhood. All to move away from the stigma of Harlem. But the crime rate is way, way down, and it is a very safe place. Enough people are rational in their decisions, and the value is so good relative to other options in manhattan that I have very little doubt that money is going to continue to flow into the neighborhood.

I've seen it plenty of times before. In Boston, both South Boston and the South End (two very different neighborhoods) were very bad for a very long time. They both gentrified very quickly, to the point where the South End is now considered a posh neighborhood-- many people consider it more desirable than the Back Bay (though it is still somewhat less expensive). However, occasionally I'd talk to someone I met who had grown up in Boston and moved away, and when I said I lived in the South End, they'd make a comment about me living in the ghetto. But their information was at least a decade old-- it is no such thing.

Harlem is similar. Especially in the FDB corridor, it has gentrified tremendously, and will continue to do so. Manhattanites and others in NYC will slowly figure this out as more gentrifiers move to the neighborhood, and thus more people know someone who lives in the area to vouch for the neighborhood. Over time, the rest of the world will catch on.

I strongly believe the long term trend will be up. The exodus to the suburbs is long since over. Our nation's youth has decided they want the convenience of a city, and NYC is the premier spot from that perspective. Harlem is so close to midtown time-wise that it will certainly continue to look more and more desirable.

I'm less sure about heading farther uptown. Washington Heights and Inwood are just too far away, in terms of communiting time. I think there's a good chance downtown Jersey City will gentrify before the north end of the island, because of the 24 hour PATH train. We'll see...

You need to look at Washington Heights and Inwood the same way as Harlem. Both neighborhoods have started to gentrify. While you think it is far uptown, I used to live in Washington Heights prior to moving down to Harlem and being on the A train is just as convenient as the B/C local from 116th. My commute is probably only 5-10 minutes shorter because of local vs express.

And I have to tell you the building i was in which is by the upper campus of columbia had changed radically over the 6 years i was there in terms of gentrifying.

Mikev: I do know the Heights and Inwood are gentrifying-- Jersey City is gentrifying as well. But not nearly at the same rate that Harlem is. I'd attribute that mainly to the proximity to midtown, but I could be wrong there... if I'm wrong, they'll probably gentrify faster than JC. If I'm right, then downtown JC will probably move faster.

I am sure somone can drag up my old posts on this, but the NYC actually has crime stats by zap - on a per capita basis. Many zips in Harlem (including FDB's) are a LOT safer than certain zips inthe meatpacking, west village, etc. Per the stats (violent and non-violent alike.)

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I just dug this up from 20 months ago. Now, you would have to go to http://www.clrsearch.com/10011_Demographics/Crime_Statistics?compare=10027 to get the updated stats. But its still the same. 10011 is more dangerous for violent crime than 10027. You can compare any two zip codes. Do it again and again and you will find west side highway areas from Tribecca to Chelsea with more crime per person.

"Crime (10014 – West Village)
Total crime risk 213
Personal crime risk 316
Murder risk 190
Rape risk 88
Assault risk 343
Property crime risk 187
Burglary risk 167
Larceny risk 119
Motor vehicle theft risk 186

Jason: As you can see, a MUCH higher crime rate than 10035 or 10027 in East Harlem and Central Harlem. And this has been the case for about a decade now. And yet people, because I can only guess they have certain racial stereotypes, always ask me “is it SAFE up there?” I am a LOT safer in Harlem than if I lived in Gwyneth Paltrow’s building in the village, apparently. Or than I would be in Gramercy, Lincoln Square, the Meatpacking district, and Tribeca.

Crime (10027 – where I live, central Harlem)
Total crime risk 111
Personal crime risk 161
Murder risk 138
Rape risk 67
Assault risk 143
Property crime risk 102
Burglary risk 56
Larceny risk 96
Motor vehicle theft risk 111

Crime 10035 in East Harlem

Total crime risk 111

Personal crime risk 161

Murder risk 138

Rape risk 67

Assault risk 143

Property crime risk 102

Burglary risk 56

Larceny risk 96

Motor vehicle theft risk 111

__________________________________________

Now compare that to

Crime (meatpacking – 10011 straddling Chelsea and the West Village, and where DoubleClick is)
Total crime risk 141
Personal crime risk 218
Murder risk 140
Rape risk 85
Assault risk 221
Property crime risk 118
Burglary risk 97
Larceny risk 98
Motor vehicle theft risk 111

Crime (Lincoln Square – 10023)
Total crime risk 134
Personal crime risk 226
Murder risk 121
Rape risk 88
Assault risk 149
Property crime risk 95
Burglary risk 49
Larceny risk 84
Motor vehicle theft risk 109

Crime (Tribeca – 10007)
Total crime risk 117
Personal crime risk 162
Murder risk 151
Rape risk 43
Assault risk 207
Property crime risk 113
Burglary risk 47
Larceny risk 197
Motor vehicle theft risk 78

Crime (Soho – 10012)

Total crime risk 174
Personal crime risk 266
Murder risk 190
Rape risk 94
Assault risk 361
Property crime risk 146
Burglary risk 123
Larceny risk 116
Motor vehicle theft risk 137

Crime (Gramercy Park 10003)

Total crime risk 134
Personal crime risk 195
Murder risk 138
Rape risk 99
Assault risk 131
Property crime risk 123
Burglary risk 90
Larceny risk 74
Motor vehicle theft risk 138 "

From the above link, 2009 data, meatpacking versus FDB:

Crime Statistics New York, NY 10011 New York, NY 10027 United States
Personal Crime Risk 215 182 100
Murder Risk 137 139 100
Rape Risk 85 81 100
Robbery Risk 336 293 100
Assault Risk 223 150 100
Property Crime Risk 117 108 100
Burglary Risk 95 86 100
Larceny Risk 100 127 100
Motor Vehicle Theft Risk 108 80 100
Total Crime Risk 140 122 100

Meatpacking versus east harlem:

Crime Statistics New York, NY 10011 New York, NY 10029 United States
Personal Crime Risk 215 127 100
Murder Risk 137 142 100
Rape Risk 85 48 100
Robbery Risk 336 168 100
Assault Risk 223 114 100
Property Crime Risk 117 85 100
Burglary Risk 95 53 100
Larceny Risk 100 109 100
Motor Vehicle Theft Risk 108 70 100
Total Crime Risk 140 90 100

West village versus east harlem (96th - 116th)

Crime Statistics New York, NY 10014 New York, NY 10029 United States
Personal Crime Risk 315 127 100
Murder Risk 191 142 100
Rape Risk 88 48 100
Robbery Risk 517 168 100
Assault Risk 341 114 100
Property Crime Risk 187 85 100
Burglary Risk 167 53 100
Larceny Risk 120 109 100
Motor Vehicle Theft Risk 185 70 100
Total Crime Risk 212 90 100

Great find! Thanks, Jason!

So you are almost three times as likely to have any sort fo personal crime in 10014 as 10029. about 25% more likely to be murdered, to be specific in one area. 90% more likely to be raped. Three times likelier to be robbed. Over 3x likely to be burglarized.

Similarly, 10014 is more dangerous than 10027. Including for murder, rape, robbery, and assualt. By a great deal.

http://www.clrsearch.com/10014_Demographics/Crime_Statistics?compare=10027

and http://www.clrsearch.com/10014_Demographics/Crime_Statistics?compare=10029

It's safe for sure. That's not the issue. The issue at the Apex are the abnormally astronomical common charges.

jason10006, your logical is flawed because you focus too much on the factual statistical quantitative numbers. So yes, while there's clearly much much MORE crime in 10014 than 10029, qualitatively speaking the crime is much BETTER in 10029. Exciting, newsworthy, fun angles. And that's scarrrrrry.

Kind of like Log -- it's better than bad, it's good.

If you want safe, the safest areas of Manhattan are Lenox Hill, BPC, Roosevelt Island, and Inwood. But plenty of people pay a steep premium over the NYC average crime rate and the (southern) Harlem crime rates to live west of 7th ave btw Houston and 23rd. SO obviously this is aimed at people like sledge who say the crime makes it work 50% less. If this is the case, then Meatpacking should be at $200 PSF.

uptowndude: if you're totally going to ignore all the analysis and keep spouting crap without even attempting to indicate where my reasoning is wrong, then you're just baiting. If you don't want to add to the conversation, that's obviously fine, but your ill-informed opinion isn't going to change my mind about buying in the Apex. If you actually had something to say, I respond well to data and logic. And have plenty of opportunity to back out, so constructive input is certainly welcome.

I calls it like I sees it. The numbers are the numbers. As a comp with other developments: it's just way too high. Thus its a tough sell.

I'm not trying to change your mind. Good luck to you. I'm just telling you I would never buy a condo that starts with common charges way above any other comparable development in the area. I smell something bad about it and will stay away. And I like the Apex otherwise, but those common charges, your data nothwithstanding, is way, way out of whack.

You remind me of a creationist arguing against Darwinism. You have no desire to research the facts, you just want to keep loudly stating an ill-informed opinion. For instance, common charges are expected to be a little less than 88 morningside, per square foot, and you get more for it (especially the central air). Those morningside common charges don't seem to be scaring anyone away.

Your sense of smell is wrong in this case, but, certainly don't go out and educate yourself-- we wouldn't want fact and reason to cloud your judgement!

I agree with Alan, the statistics are flawed because your compare crime rate in Harlem to Chelsea and West village, 2 neighborhoods that see the population double or triple on the week end. Half of Manhattan and Jersey hang out in these 2 neighborhoods on Week ends.